Framework
Historical Pattern Recognition
Browser wars, spreadsheets, falling input costs — AI is the latest chapter in a very old story.
How it works
- 1Study previous technology platform shifts: browsers, spreadsheets, industrial automation.
- 2The biggest long-term value typically comes from services and workflows built on top of core technology, not the technology itself.
- 3Ask: where does the compounding value accumulate once this technology commoditizes?
Hear it on the podcast
Speed Is Killing AI StartupsListen to the episodeMore from this episode
Stability Over SpeedShipping faster is not always progress — fragile wins disappear if you cannot reproduce them.Agents Need Management, Not MythologyEnterprise agents need permissions, controls, logs, and oversight — treat them like employees.The Internal App Store ThesisCompanies will need centralized systems to discover, manage, fork, reuse, and govern agents.Swarms Over Super-AgentsMany specialized agents beat one all-purpose agent — easier to debug, govern, and improve.The Productivity TrapMore code does not always equal more progress — define what productivity means before multiplying it.Wait for the Idea You Cannot IgnoreDo not start a company just to start one — wait for the opportunity you feel compelled to pursue.The Enterprise Agent Control PlaneEnterprises deploying AI agents at scale need a centralized governance layer — the same way the iPhone created demand for mobile device management.Bionics vs. RoboticsThe frame you use to think about AI agents determines where you apply them. Bionics augments human capability. Robotics replaces it. The difference changes everything downstream.The Science Fiction Challenge MethodDon't mandate AI tool adoption. Put impossible-sounding challenges in front of your team and let the tools earn their usage organically.The 'Have To' Startup TestDon't start a company to start a company. Wait for the observation you cannot not pursue. That's the one you'll have the most fun with and the best shot of building well.
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