Framework
AI Disqualification Stack
Use AI to kill bad deals before they reach human underwriting. Build a hardcoded list of non-negotiables and run every inbound deal through it as a first pass. The goal is not to automate the investment decision - it is to automate the no. Five deals worth real attention each week cannot receive that attention if the team is wading through fifty non-starters. The edge is focus, not volume.
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Recession-Resistant Asset FrameworkTarget assets whose demand profile holds up or strengthens during economic contractions: affordable housing, self-storage, and RV parks. Require mid-teens IRR targets, meaningful depreciation offset, no over-leverage, and first commitment from family capital before inviting outside LPs. The framework is not just about return - it is about building a portfolio that does not go poof when attention-dependent assets collapse.Supply-Demand Imbalance ThesisInvest in regions where supply cannot respond to demand, either because permitting is prohibitively difficult, political opposition is structural, or institutional capital has not yet arrived. The Northeast manufactured housing market is the clearest example: demand is inelastic, supply is effectively frozen, and the regulatory moat compounds over time. High barriers to new supply are not a risk - they are the investment thesis.The CAVE People ProblemCitizens Against Virtually Everything (coined by Cooper Carry) describes the dynamic where municipal meetings are dominated by the loudest opponents, not the people most affected by a policy outcome. Development decisions that would benefit thousands go unmade because dozens of motivated opponents show up and the silent majority does not. Understanding this dynamic is prerequisite to operating in any regulated local market.True Open Space ArgumentSprawling suburban development with half-acre lots delivers almost no ecological or community benefit while consuming enormous amounts of land. True open space preservation requires building densely where you build, then aggregating shared green space. The argument has implications for zoning policy, climate outcomes, and housing supply - and it tends to unite environmentalists and housing advocates who rarely agree on anything.
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